NEW YORK CITY/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and drop out of the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, according to three Arab American analysts.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his withdrawal announcement on Sunday, trailed former President Donald Trump in polls amid a growing Arab-American #AbandonBiden movement, and broader calls for him to drop out of the 2024 race after his disastrous June 27 debate performance in Atlanta .
What was supposed to be a coronation for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which nearly 4,700 party delegates will vote by state for the nominee they want to challenge Trump. , the Republican Party nominee.
Rana Abtar, a Washington DC talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, although several other candidates could also be considered. But she believes Democrats “must show unity” if they are to win the November election.
“Today, what we're seeing is that the Democrats are starting to support Harris, one by one,” she told Arab News. “There were some delegates in a couple of states who have already voted to support Kamala Harris. That means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“The rest of the Democrats who haven't backed Harris yet are expected to fall in line soon. At some point, we're going to see all Democrats, or most of the Democrats, get behind Harris. It's very important for Democrats to show unity after that dilemma that their party faced following President Biden's announcement that he will not seek a second term.”
Biden's withdrawal from the race frees his congressional delegates from the nation's 50 states and provinces to endorse any candidate during the convention. Many alternative names are being floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular with African-American voters, a traditional pillar of Democratic Party support, Abtar said many still see her as part of the Biden administration's policies that drove the #AbandonBiden movement, where Arabs and Muslims voted in key swings. state primaries for “unaffiliated” or “no vote” options rather than for president.
“Harris is not very popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “A lot of Democrats are concerned that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's against Trump. Of course, in the coming days, we're going to see Harris come out and talk to voters, because in the past, in her role as vice president, she didn't speak directly to the American people on many occasions.
“Biden gave her the immigration case, which in itself put her in a very awkward position, especially given that the Republicans' main attack on the Democrats is immigration and border security.
“But I think the most important element here is not Harris. It's going to be who she's going to pick as her running mate because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Green Party's candidate Dr. Jill Stein, often seen as “election spoilers” – people who can lose votes from Harris or even from Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered pretty high for an independent candidate and his voters could make a difference this election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if she gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Any of the people currently being proposed as Biden's replacement could become the vice presidential nominee, including Pritzker, a billionaire with presidential ambitions of his own.
Amal Mudallali, a former UN ambassador and CEO of Bridges International Group, believes Harris has a “perception problem”.
She told Arab News: “The perception is that she was not a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to defeat Trump.”
Although Democrats appeared to move quickly to rally behind Harris, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's endorsement on Monday, Mudallali remains cautious.
“Everything is up in the air because there are still very powerful Democrats who are calling for an open convention and to have an open field for everybody to throw their hats in the ring, and to see if they can get the strongest candidate for the Democratic Party to be able defeat Trump,” she said.
The influence of the independent candidates in the election cannot be discounted either, she added.
“In very close elections, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very close race — you're talking about a couple of thousand or a thousand votes — that can make or break an election campaign,” Mudallali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy could get a lot of votes from the Democrats, this could hurt the Democrats more and it will be a big problem for them.
“But so far we don't know who the Democratic Party candidate will be. If the individual is a very strong candidate, the party may be able to unify the anti-Trump constituency, which will overwhelmingly vote for the candidate on the Democratic side. In that case, the independents will not to make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is “all but certain” to replace Biden as the nominee, and suggested Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “all women ticket.”
He told Arab News: “Speculation is heavily focused on who will be her running mate, including possibly an all-women ticket should she pick Whitmer. It's unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help deliver the key state Michigan, and an all-female team can reinvigorate the currently largely demoralized Democratic base.”
He added: “Harris has never been highly rated by the American public. But at this point, the decision by the Democratic Party and President Biden to put her name forward is largely based on funding and economics. She is the only one who will be able to qualify for all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars, that have been raised so far. Therefore, her choice of vice presidential candidate will also be key in bringing about the Democratic base and the general likability of the Democratic ticket.”
Maksad believes Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, and speculation about Whitmer's addition to the ticket, could sway Michigan's strong Arab and Muslim vote, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary. .
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They're a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battleground states. Michigan gets a lot of attention, but so do Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they feel strongly about the war in Gaza and that President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. Having Biden step aside opens up the potential for the Democratic Party to make inroads among Arab Americans in Michigan again. And should the vice president (election) actually be Michigan's governor, it will give Democrats even more opportunities to make inroads and win Michigan again, as a key battleground state.”
