What we know about Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal

BEIRUT/DUBAI: Israel's security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to avenge Saturday's rocket attack on a soccer field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.

According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was hit by an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket with a 50 kg warhead, launched by Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia – a conclusion supported by the United States.

Hezbollah, which has traded regular cross-border fire with Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7, said it had no “connection” to the incident, but confirmed it had fired one such rocket on Saturday at an Israeli military target in the Golan.

In a statement, it said that “the Islamic resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the incident, and we categorically deny any false allegations in this regard,” blaming the deaths instead on a failed Israeli interceptor missile.

The Majdal Shams incident followed an Israeli attack that killed four Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, prompting the militia to launch retaliatory rocket attacks on the Golan and northern Israel.

In a thread posted on social media platform X, Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said one possible scenario is that Hezbollah or one of its allies such as the Al-Fajr Forces and the Al-Qassam Brigades fired the rockets by mistake.

Regardless of what took place, “at least the massacre gave the Netanyahu government an (excuse) to respond with violence,” he said.

Netanyahu, who returned from his US visit early, immediately attended a Security Council meeting and told local media that “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not paid before.”

After the meeting, his office said: “Cabinet members authorized the prime minister and the defense minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the terrorist organization Hezbollah.”

On Sunday, during a visit to Majdal Shams, Gallant vowed to “hit the enemy hard”, sparking fears that the war in Gaza could spread. At the same time, Iran warned Israel that any new military “adventure” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences”.

Israel's army called it “the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians” since the exchange of fire across the Lebanese border began in October. The attack has increased fears that what has so far been relatively limited hostilities could spiral into an all-out war.

Indeed, regional watchers fear that any major retaliation to the attack by Israel could even draw Hezbollah's Iranian backers into the fray.

“A strong Israeli response against Hezbollah could provoke another direct retaliation from Iran,” Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East commentator and academic, said after the rocket attack.

As with previous escalating incidents between Israel and its Iran-backed enemies since the Gaza war broke out, the reprisals have been relatively small and carefully orchestrated to maintain their deterrent effect without triggering a major confrontation.

However, Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute, has no illusions about the seriousness of the situation. “The risk of further miscounting has not been higher,” he said.

“A wider war between Israel and Lebanon is long overdue. A 'positive' scenario will see the coming offensive encompass the now largely depopulated areas of both countries.”

While the rocket attack and subsequent Israeli retaliation could set the stage for a rapid escalation, Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center believes Hezbollah remains keen to avoid an all-out war.

“It remains that Hezbollah wants to avoid a war and would show restraint after the Israeli response,” he said. “Even if Hezbollah crosses a red line, Hezbollah would likely choose a symbolic 'check the box' response.”

But “The Majdal Shams attack highlights the challenge of maintaining a geographically limited conflict for many months. Mistakes or miscalculations are bound to happen and can escalate into a conflict, regardless of the various parties' desire to avoid conflict.”

Israel made good on its threat to retaliate early Sunday morning by striking the southern Lebanese cities of Abbasiyah and Burj Al-Shamali. Both cities, bordering the city of Tyre, suffered significant material damage. Further attacks took place on Tire Harfa and Khiyam.

Strikes also occurred in Taraya in central Bekaa, with two missiles destroying a residential building. No injuries were reported.

“Nobody wants a big war,” Kim Ghattas, a Lebanese journalist based in Beirut who writes for The Atlantic, wrote on X.

“Israel will try to hit key or high-visibility targets, either during a hard night of strikes or a week of operations. The key is to avoid population centers/civilian casualties and not trigger a major Hezbollah response and a wider war.

“Very difficult to calibrate this. High stakes for Lebanon, the region and the Biden administration. So far, Israel has not called to evacuate additional settlements in northern Israel, indicating that they believe Hezbollah's response will be measured.

“All of this requires open channels of communication to make sure no one misinterprets the other side's moves. It's like a choreography of death, with all-too-real consequences for civilians everywhere.”

As tensions rose over the weekend, several Western nations issued statements urging their citizens to avoid all unnecessary travel to Lebanon and Israel. At the same time, several airlines have stopped flights to and from Beirut.

A flurry of diplomatic activity has been underway since the attack to limit Israel's response.

The Lebanese government condemned all acts of violence and attacks against civilians. “Targeting civilians is a flagrant violation of international law and contrary to the principles of humanity,” it said in a statement, calling for “an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts.”

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the United States, France and others were trying to limit the escalation, in an interview late Sunday with local Al-Jadeed TV.

“Hezbollah has been targeting military sites, not civilian sites, since the beginning of the war,” he said, adding that he “did not believe they carried out this attack on Majdal Shams.”

“It could have been carried out by other organizations, an Israeli mistake or even a mistake by Hezbollah. I don't know. We need an international investigation to find out the truth of the matter.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also said “talks are ongoing with international, European and Arab sides to protect Lebanon and avert dangers,” in a statement on Sunday.

Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the U.S. National Security Council, said Washington has been “in continuous discussions” with Israel and Lebanon since the attack.

Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, condemned the rocket attack and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”.

In a joint statement, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and Major General Aroldo Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stressed that “civilians must be protected at all times.”

They called on “the parties to exercise maximum restraint and put an end to the intense and ongoing exchange of fire that could ignite a wider conflict that would plunge the entire region into an unimaginable catastrophe.”

Hennis-Plasschaert said she had been in contact with Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who is considered a key channel of communication with Hezbollah.

In his own statement, Berri said that “Lebanon and its resistance (Hezbollah) are committed to resolution 1701 and the rules of engagement not to target civilians,” stressing that “the resistance's denial of what happened in Majdal Shams categorically confirms this commitment and its and Lebanon's lack of responsibility for what happened.”

Walid Jumblatt, the influential former leader of the Druze-based Progressive Socialist Party, said he had received a phone call on Saturday night from US President Joe Biden's special envoy Amos Hochstein to discuss the incident.

Jumblatt urged both sides to exercise restraint and remain calm, reiterating the need to avoid civilian casualties. “Wherever it occurs, the targeting of civilians, whether in occupied Palestine, the occupied Golan or in southern Lebanon, is unacceptable,” he said in a statement.

The fact that those killed in the Majdal Shams attack were not Israelis but members of the Druze community is a complicating factor for Hezbollah, which has sought to improve ties with the religious sect.

Many residents of Majdal Shams have not accepted Israeli citizenship since Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967.

After capturing about two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel annexed the area in 1981 in a move not recognized by the international community, with the exception of the United States since 2019.

The Golan Druze largely identify as Syrian, while holding residency status, rather than citizenship, in Israel. Members of the Druze community in Syria have resisted the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, who is supported by Hezbollah.

The “casus belli” of a war is particularly important to Hezbollah, said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst and head of the analyst team at Le Beck International.

“They will have to justify their actions to the Lebanese (who would suffer massive destruction by Israel) if a war breaks out as a result of the attack in Majdal Shams, and this will be particularly unpleasant for them.

“Hezbollah wants to be seen as the defender of Lebanon. If a war breaks out over an attack that killed residents of a city (who don't even identify as Israeli), this would be particularly bad for the group.

“This explains Hezbollah's denial, in addition to the sectarian dynamic. The very narrative of how the war begins is crucial to the group.”