Skyrim -fans believe that the Empire would win the Civil War if Dragonborn was not involved

Summary

The question of who would win between the Empire and Stormcloaks if the player did not get involved is an interesting one.
Most people believe that the empire would prevail under these circumstances.
Ulfric simply does not have enough popular support to tip the empire.

StormCloaks versus the Empire – a debate that has collapsed on the forum over the Internet since Skyrim was released in 2011. If we threw away both sides morality and ethics for a moment, we can think about the simple question of which side would win if Dragonborn had never engaged.

By knowing Lore of the Elder Scrolls, both sides probably won in a Dragonbreak, similar to the warp in the west from Daggerfall. However, let's ignore the probable multipleral explanation for the result of the Civil War and think about who would have won in a normal universe where deified creatures did not disturb in deadly affairs every other day.

War never changes

This question was the subject of a new Reddit thread of glittering_ad_7709. The overwhelming majority of the comments believe that the empire would easily win the conflict if Dragonborn did not interfere.

A simple explanation is that Ulfric Stormcloak would have been executed if Dragonborn's presence did not pull alduin this weekend during Skyrim's prologue. This is a simple but effective argument. After all, the uprising is named after Ulfric. Who should say if it could have continued after his death?

Theoretically, however, a martyred ulfric may have turned more neutral North towards the empire. There are plenty of real examples where the death of the figurine head in a semi-popular rebellion has led to extensive unrest, which has led to an even greater revolution in response.

If Ulfric survives, his military skill should still be called into question. Ulfric allowed himself to be captured by the empire, the absolute worst case for a revolutionary figure head. This is potentially a prosecution against his ability to lead a successful uprising. However, General Tullius is a proven commander who, after a few short months in Skyrim, “turned things” in favor of the empire.

People claim that Stormcloaks are more familiar with Skyrim's terrain, but much of the empire's forces in the province are native North. This is easily observed in the game's opening, where Hadvar and Ralof are on opposite sides of the conflict, even though they both come from the village of Riverwood.

Other creative raises a valid point in the fact that other pro-stormCloak Jarls, namely Lalia Law-giving and Korir are not the most valuable allies. The real power of Lalia's grip is Maven Black-Briar, an empire loyalist. Korir's grip was mostly destroyed by the great collapse and neutorated its military and economic power. Skald of Dawnstar is Ulfric's only useful allies.

StormCloaks has a couple of remarkable advantages: most of the Empire's armies are stationed on the border between the Empire and the Aldmeri dominance, and the pale pass between Cyrodiil and Skyrim has been blocked by an avalanche, and interrupts the primary country road between the two provinces.

But without full support from the people in Skyrim, these benefits are not enough to win StormCloaks an extended war with the empire. One of the only feasible roads to the Victory for the Stormcloaks is by convincing or submitting Jarl Balgruuf from Whiterun, which controls the country's “bread basket”. But in Skyrim sides Balgruuf in the end with the empire for the safety of his people, which means that the hold must be taken by force.