ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have periodically met in Moscow for talks brokered by Russia. But these meetings have failed to result in a thaw in their icy relations.
However, that is a different matter now, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing his desire to re-establish formal ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He said earlier this month that he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any time”, to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on the “content”.
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 2011 following the outbreak of Syria's civil war. Relations have been hostile ever since, especially as Turkiye continues to support armed groups resisting the Assad regime.

Since the civil war broke out in 2011, Turkiye has supported armed Syrian factions in their fight against the regime of President Bashar Assad, leftist. AFP
What then is the motive for changing course now? And what are the likely consequences of the Turkish-Syrian normalization of ties?
Syrian writer and political scientist Shoresh Darwish believes that President Erdogan is seeking normalization for two reasons. “The first is the preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of returning to the policy of (an American) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Erdogan will therefore have to cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
The second reason, says Darwish, is Erdogan's desire to get closer to the Syrian regime's ally Russia after Turkey's move against the United States following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, the conflict as a NATO member has complicated Turkey's normally balanced approach to its relations with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara's cooperation with Moscow is difficult on the Ukrainian issue,” Darwish said. “As a result of the significant Western involvement in this matter, their cooperation in Syria represents a rallying point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow's interests in the Middle East.”
Those in Syria's opposition-controlled northwest, supported by Turkiye, see a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus as a betrayal.
During one of several protests in Idlib since early July, protesters held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, rural Aleppo and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution, demanding freedom, dignity and the building of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still cling to this principle and these slogans and cannot abandon them.”
Those living in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria's territory east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
“There are fears among the population that reconciliation could be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” Omar said.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkiye take control of several cities, many of which were previously under the control of AANES.
Turkey's justification for its incursions in 2018 and 2019 and continued presence on Syrian territory was its aim to establish a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of AANES – the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkiye sees the SDF as a Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Of course, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to make with Assad,” Darwish said. “This issue unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkiye as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience of self-administration.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First, they would like to see Turkiye remove its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish strikes against the AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural and administrative rights.”
But how likely is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very much, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I think the prospect of a détente from Erdogan and Assad is very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkiye's ideas of 'normalization' with Syria correspond to a policy of one-way influence in favor of Ankara. In this arrangement, Turkiye continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and makes military encroachment demands on their sovereignty, which with the Adana Agreement in 1998, but gives nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements that a meeting between him and Erdogan would only occur under the condition of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes that Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I can't see that Damascus is interested in being manipulated for a photo op,” he said. “The Syrian government is much prouder than some of the other regional actors who are happy to be one of Turkey's 'neo-Ottoman vilayets.'
Erdogan may be trying to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began in earnest with Syria's re-entry into the Arab League last year. However, the European states and the United States are still divided.
“While Germany, France, Italy and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkiye can control the gateway to Europe and act as a 'continental ejector' for refugees from the Middle East and West Asia, the US is more focused on denying Russia and Iran full access to all of Syria again for strategic reasons, such as access to the Mediterranean and the “Shiite land bridge” from Tehran to Beirut, Redcrow says.
“The current status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation would be, as it would also endanger the northeastern parts of Syria, where the US military is embedded with its most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. So Turkiye would not be given some kind of green light to risk American interests.”
In February, the US House of Representatives passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on social media platform X on July 12, the law author, Rep. Joe Wilson, his disappointment with Erdogan's demands for normalization, likening it to “normalizing with death itself”.
While there may be little chance of reconciliation succeeding at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkiye view even rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five who lives in southeastern Turkiye, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) started, many people have not even left their homes. Even if they are abused by their bosses at work, they are afraid to speak up for fear of being expelled.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“A forced return would affect us a lot,” Hayat said. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a man is deported back to Syria and his wife and children stay in Turkey, how will they cope? It's difficult. Here, our children study. They have stability and security.”
Fears of deportation have been exacerbated by waves of violence against Syrian refugees that have swept across Turkey's south in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of central Turkey's Kayseri province attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye stems in part from economic issues, with Turks seeing underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their employment prospects.
“The Turks are very happy that we are returning home,” Hayat said. “For them, it's not fast enough. We all live under an elevated level of stress. We only ask that (Assad and Erdogan) not reconcile.”