Box office comps are a difficult thing to analyze. There are countless factors to consider when deciding if a movie is tracking poorly, and it's worth noting that only the very earliest tracking is currently available for Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu. The film opens in theaters in a little less than a month, on May 22. Every week we get more detailed estimates; even just before opening night, however, they will be estimates.
But all that said? The Mandalorian & Grogu might not be the big ticket Disney would hope for from a franchise that jumped from theaters to streamers a full seven years ago. If things are showing as they currently are $80 million for the Memorial Day weekend is either a disaster or not bad at all… from a certain point of view.
Still flying during solo
Matt Belloni has followed the film and television industry for as long as I have been alive. Okay, I'm actually too old to say that with a straight face. But he is not far from it. He worked for The Hollywood Reporter in an editorial director role, then bounced back to co-found Puck. He appears on many panels, month after month, and his podcast has filled me in on things that even the big ticket outlets (like the aforementioned Hollywood Reporter) often fail to.
All this to say, when Belloni's tweet above, referring to Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu's current $80M USD tracking number, calls it either a “disaster” or a “not bad at all,” the two opposing points are still well worth listening to. Because it's true, right? To some extent, it is simply common sense. That's rock bottom for a Star Wars movie. It doesn't look good. But this is a relatively modestly budgeted picture ($165 million production cost plus what is no doubt a lot of marketing spend). Also, it is a movie sequel to a streaming TV series.
And, really, the zeitgeist has faded a bit, hasn't it? At least, anecdotally, it certainly seems to have. From about 2019 to 2022, I couldn't walk into a grocery store without seeing someone pushing to grab a reusable “Baby Yoda” bag, but that's 2026. The Mandalorian's third season wasn't even that well received… which doesn't mean quality matters. completely. People still see Grogu, mislabel the poor kid and go ham. It's just not a full three-course ham dinner anymore.
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$80 million is in line with expectations from both Lucasfilm and Disney, per Variety. Remember, that doesn't mean they're overwhelmed with it; but it shows how much the landscape has changed for A Galaxy Far, Far, Away since Solo: A Star Wars Story landed with an $83.3 million domestic opening weekend in the same frame (Memorial Day weekend) back in 2018. That it blew the mind in all the wrong ways and fired the proverbial first shot that ultimately looked bearish enough to prompt a trend to the seven-year return of carbon dioxide. chamber for what was once cinema's simplest effort.
But everything is relative, as Belloni's tweet illustrates. The Mandalorian & Grogu has the tightest production budget of any Star Wars film since 2005's Revenge of the Sith. Solo, by contrast, cost almost twice as much to make and break. Does this mean the suits are excited to see Star Wars' return to the big screen potentially flying closer to the ground than they would have liked? Well, two things. First, a final reminder: this is early tracking. Second… there's always Star Wars: Starfighter. Industry insiders argue that Disney is more bullish on its outlook after all.
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