A Pokemon Legends: ZA the player captures a version of Charmander that has a 0.000122% chance of spawning, meaning there is a 1 in 819,672 chance. Pokemon Gold and Silver introduced the concept of Shiny Pokémon back in 2000, for context, where a wild encounter had a 1 in 8,192 chance of becoming shiny. In other words, this Charmander in Pokemon Legends: ZA is about a hundred times rarer than Shinies then.
Shinies have come a long way since then, with Shiny catching up Pokemon Legends: ZA and other things Pokémon games are becoming more common as opposed to pure luck. Spawn chances have been tweaked over the years, items like Shiny Charm have made them easier to find, and different recovery methods and so on have made Shiny Pokemon more of an option and less of a random, awesome luxury Pokemon. Still, a Shiny Alpha Female Charmander (and Charizard) is definitely a super rare luxury Pokemon.
Screenshots shared by Redditor BASEERNINJA show this beautiful Pokémon in the wild and later in the party. While there are plenty of jokes about the chances of a Shiny Alpha Female Charmander becoming a Shiny Alpha Female Charizard there are plenty, but there is a breakdown of the math and the chances as well. Assuming the Redditor has Pokemon Legends: ZAs Shiny Charm, this means that Shinies are 1/1024, Alphas are 1/20, a female Charmander is 1/8, Charmander spawn itself is 1/10, and that there are two potential spawns, this means there is a 1 in 819, 672 chance of finding this specific Charmander in the wild.
The odds of a shiny alpha female charmander in the wild
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Shiny: 1/1024 (with Shiny Charm)
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Alpha: 1/20
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Female: 1/8
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Charmander Spawn: 1/10
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+Two potential spawns
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= 1 in 819, 672 or .000122%
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H/T Redditor PlanGoneAwry
Oh, and to make it even more special, BASEERNINJA caught this Charmander with a Moon Ball. It seems they had saved and intended to use Pokemon Legends: ZAs save-and-restore shiny hunting method to ensure they caught it, but according to the Redditor, they nailed it on the first try. If nothing else, it's tweaks like these that ensure Shiny Pokemon remain special and in the hearts of fans worldwide.
Over time, Shiny Pokémon have become more common, and it's even possible to complete live Shiny Pokédex in games like Scarlet and Violet. It's a far cry from the achievements of previous games, even if it was technically possible. Meanwhile, the introduction of Alpha Pokemon and other parameters ensures that there will always be a way to happen with genuinely rare, genuinely awesome Pokemon.
- Released
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16 October 2025
- ESRB
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All 10+ / Fantasy violence, in-game purchase
