PARIS: French voters face a crucial choice on July 7 in a snap parliamentary election that could see the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation of World War II – or no majority at all.
Projections from polling agencies suggest that the far-right National Rally has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain in the complex voting system.
In Sunday’s first round, National Rally came out on top with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition that includes centre-left, green and far-left forces came second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.
Here’s a closer look:
How does it work?
The French system is complex and not proportionate to national support for a party. Legislators are elected by district.
More than 60 candidates were elected by a landslide, receiving at least 50 percent of Sunday’s vote.
Additionally, the two leading contenders, along with anyone else who has won the support of more than 12.5 percent of registered voters, qualify for the second round.
In many districts, three people managed to get to the second round, although some tactics to block far-right candidates have already been announced: the left-wing coalition said it will withdraw its candidates in districts when they come in third place to support other politicians opposed to the far right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would resign before the runoff to block the National Rally.
This makes the outcome of the second round uncertain, although polls show that the National Rally party has a good chance of obtaining an absolute majority, that is, at least 289 seats out of 577.
The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of the French parliament. It has the final say in the legislative process compared to the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron has a presidential term until 2027 and has said he will not resign before the end of his term.
What is cohabitation?
If the National Rally or another political force other than his centrist alliance obtains a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.
In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.
The modern French Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last of which was that of conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The prime minister is responsible to parliament, leads the government and presents legislative proposals.
“In the event of cohabitation, the policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.
The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.
“It is possible that the president will prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign government ordinances or decrees,” Garrigues added.
“However, the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to the vote of the National Assembly, thus overcoming the reluctance of the president,” he noted.
Who leads defense and foreign policy?
In previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policy were considered the informal “private field” of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be subject to tension in the course of a potential cohabitation.
According to the Constitution, while “the president is the head of the army, it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“Even in the diplomatic field, the president’s perimeter is significantly restricted,” Garrigues added.
Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he wanted to “be a cohabiting prime minister, respectful of the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising on the policies we will implement.”
Bardella said that if he were to become prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine, a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would reject French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets inside Russia itself.
What happens if there is no majority?
The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly: this has been the case with Macron’s centrist alliance since 2022.
However, the National Rally has already said it would reject this option, because it would mean that a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a vote of no confidence if other political parties joined in.
The president may try to build a broad coalition from left to right, an option that seems unlikely, given their political differences.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal expressed hope Sunday that he could have enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “republican forces,” which could include those of the center-left and center-right.
Experts say another complex option would be to appoint a “government of experts” that is not affiliated with political parties but would still have to be accepted by a majority of the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus primarily on day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If the political talks were to last too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics (July 26-August 11), Garrigues said a “transition period” was not ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government “would still be responsible for current affairs”, awaiting further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, it appears that the Constitution of the Fifth Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences, said in a written statement Po Paris. “The institutions are more solid than they appear, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”
“But there remains another unknown in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.