Polymarket has started taking bets (literally) on who will win The Game Awards' top prize, Game of the Year. You might think there is stiff competition. After all, this has been quite a year for bangers. However, one would be wrong.
At least that early feels better on October 31st, over a month before the ceremony. I don't personally condone gambling, and I'm not a complete expert on how this works, but I'd say I'd be surprised if things changed drastically between now and then. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 has been a hugely popular predecessor since its release all the way back in April, and not even the highly anticipated Hollow Knight: Silksong can be enough to thwart its trajectory.
Tell me the odds
First reported on Kotaku, Polymarket's “Game of the Year 2025” betting page is open, and at the time of writing, a single buy-in for Clair Obscur requires an 84-cent (USD) placement. It might not sound like much, but that's not really how it goes; right now it's $18,477 on the line and climbing. Small bites; large payouts. If you “buy no”, that is, you bet against that, it's only 19 cents. Which is significantly lower than the nearest “buy no”, at 93 cents.
Who are Clair Obscur's rivals for the throne, however far behind? Unsurprisingly, Hollow Knight: Silksong has an 8 percent chance – that's compared to Expedition 33's whopping 82 percent. From there it's Hades 2 at 5 percent, Death Stranding 2 at 3 percent, and then Split Fiction and The Outer Worlds 2 each at 2 percent. Everything else is 1 percent or narrower.
What does it all mean? Well, that means people throw their money at video games and hope for the best, I guess. Again, things could change between now and TGA's event on December 11th, but while the percentages are sure to turn around, the commanding lead from Clair Obscur is likely to only move a note if there are oddities.
To be crystal clear, my words here are not intended as any form of financial advice. As I mentioned earlier, I am not interested in betting. It's not for me at all. So, yes. Never listen to me about this stuff!
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 has actually already won its first GOTY award. It isn't the The GOTY award, which means it has nothing to do with betting pools, but more importantly, it's cool. It is well deserved. This is a great game. The awards are sure to be lined up in the coming weeks.
